Case File — SILENT ORCHARD
Medium Confidence
Evidence is credible and plausible but not fully corroborated.
Note Pattern, No Forecast
Record the pattern of reduced appearances without forecasting succession timing.
Flag Elevated Succession Risk
Brief policymakers that succession planning should be prioritized given converging signs of declining health, without specifying a timeline.
Forecast Succession Within 60 Days
Give policymakers a specific 60-day succession timeline for planning purposes.